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The 2027 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Fed President Robert Bostic will speak on monetary policy in ten minutes.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairperson Jefferson said that quantitative tightening (QT) of the FOMC can continue in an orderly manner. Interest rates near sufficient reserves will not affect the final size of the Fed's balance sheet, and it is hoped that sufficient reserves will be approached in an orderly manner.
美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，可以继续按有序的方式推进FOMC的量化紧缩（QT）。接近充足准备金的利率不会影响美联储资产负债表的最终规模，希望以有序的方式接近充足的储备。
美联储巴尔金表示，基本假设是，FOMC需要一段时间才能对关税的影响有清晰的了解。供应商更有底气，他们将不得不将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。消费者表示他们对支付更高价格感到厌倦。
FOMC声明：1. 声明概述：以11-1的投票比例通过将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，理事沃勒投下反对票，其倾向于继续以当前速度缩表。声明中不再称风险“大致平衡”，提及经济前景的不确定性已增加。2. 利率前景：点阵图维持近三年中值不变，今明两年将降息两次，但2025年支持不降息或者降息更少的官员人数增多。3. 通胀前景：上调今明两年PCE通胀预期及今年核心PCE通胀预期，仍预计通胀在2027年达标，多数官员预计风险倾向上行。4. 经济前景：全线下调2025-2027年GDP增速预期，今年预期从2.1%大幅下调至1.7%。小幅上调今年失业率至4.4%，其余年限不变。5. 缩表政策：将于4月开始放缓资产负债表缩减步伐，缩减国债规模从250亿美元降至50亿美元，MBS规模维持在350亿美元。鲍威尔发布会：1. 利率前景：美联储无需急于调整政策立场，需依据数据进行观望。可根据需要放松或维持限制性立场。已处于可以降息或维持当前明显紧缩政策立场的阶段。2. 通胀前景：通胀仍然略高。今年通胀取得进一步进展可能会有所延迟。基线预测是通胀将是暂时的。3. 经济前景：美国经济强劲，调查显示经济...
The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic forecasts show that the median GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 to 2027 is 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, respectively, and the December forecast is 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9%, respectively. The median forecast for the federal funds rate from 2025 to 2027 is 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.1%, respectively, and the December forecast is 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.1%, respectively. The median forecast for the unemployment rate from 2025 to the end of 2027 is 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3%, respectively...
美联储FOMC经济预期显示，2025至2027年底GDP增速预期中值分别为1.7%、1.8%、1.8%，12月预期分别为2.1%、2.0%、1.9%。2025年至2027年联邦基金利率预期中值分别为3.9%、3.4%和3.1%，12月预期分别为3.9%、3.4%和3.1%。2025至2027年底失业率预期中值分别为4.4%、4.3%、4.3%，12月预期分别为4.3%、4.3%、4.3%。
据CME“美联储观察”：美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为99.0%，降息25个基点的概率为1.0%。美联储到5月维持利率不变的概率为83.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为16.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.2%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为40.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.1%。
3月17日消息，加密分析师Nik Patel表示，本周市场将迎来包括FOMC在内的五项重要利率决议，但周一的零售销售等增长数据可能提供更具战术意义的市场信号。如果数据低于预期但市场延续上周五的反弹，可能表明增长恐慌已被充分定价，仅有严重的关税升级才可能引发新低。反之，如果数据好于预期，市场情绪...
Next week's important macro events and data forecasts are as follows (all in Beijing time): In terms of macroeconomic data: Monday at 20:30, the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in February and the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in March. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. At 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference. Wednesday at 18:00, Eurozone CPI data for February. On Thursday at 1...
下周重要宏观事件与数据预告如下（均为北京时间）： 宏观经济数据方面： 周一 20:30，美国 2 月零售销售月率、3 月纽约联储制造业指数； 周二，日本央行将公布利率决议，14:30，日本央行行长植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会； 周三 18:00，欧元区 2 月 CPI 数据； 周四 16:30，瑞士央行、瑞典央行公布利率决议；17...
Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly line to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week's FOMC (FOMC) meeting. Ryan Lee, principal analyst at Bitget Research, said that a break above $81,000 this week will be key to avoiding further declines in Bitcoin. Staying above that level would indicate resilience, but if it fell below $76,000, it could trigger more short-term selling pressure. According to the latest estimates from CME Group's Federal Reserve Watch Tool, the market c...
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